Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?
32
Ṁ1kṀ16kOct 2
7%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Refers to upper stage only.
Successfully caught means remains in one piece allowing inspection. It does not have to be capable of reflight, a few serious scratches would be ok as vehicle could be inspected.
Will extend deadline until one occurs. If neither is going to happen resolves na.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?
89% chance
[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?
36% chance
When will Starship reach orbit?
Which Starship will be the first to be caught?
Will Starship’s upper stage be caught successfully on SpaceX’s first attempt?
54% chance
When will Starship complete an orbit?
Successful Starship splashdowns before orbital launch attempt?
Will SpaceX will do orbital refilling several times in 2026 with Starship V3?
13% chance
When will Starship first dock to a non-Starship spacecraft?
Will Starship reach Earth orbit before the Blue Origin Lunar Lander?
75% chance
Sort by:
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?
89% chance
[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?
36% chance
When will Starship reach orbit?
Which Starship will be the first to be caught?
Will Starship’s upper stage be caught successfully on SpaceX’s first attempt?
54% chance
When will Starship complete an orbit?
Successful Starship splashdowns before orbital launch attempt?
Will SpaceX will do orbital refilling several times in 2026 with Starship V3?
13% chance
When will Starship first dock to a non-Starship spacecraft?
Will Starship reach Earth orbit before the Blue Origin Lunar Lander?
75% chance